The "Aren't you my bestie" dilemma
Before we begin to understand the upcoming events in the next few months let's take a look at the fundamentals here
1. Israel embassy in India faced a small explosion near the embassy in Jan end just after 26th Jan and a note has been found linked to some Iranian inscription saying "This is just a beginning". (Source: Different news blogs)
2. Israel just a day after that incident sent advanced LMG to India so that India can counter crossfire situations at the border efficiently
3. Biden stopped Saudi and UAE arms deal which was initiated by Mr. Trump and UAE already set up an embassy in Jan in Tel Aviv as to return the favour of USA.
4. Although trump cleared the Boeing F15EX and F18 Super hornet to participate in MMRCA deal in parallel to Rafale and Grippen SAAB and reiterated his support indirectly while the USA Defence Secy Lloyd Austin help the talks with Rajnath Singh possibly over China's expansionist policies
5. Biden talked to Russia nad talks weren't so successful as per media briefs, my best guess, the contention is not upon Syria but on the mineral and gaseous and oil resource-rich Arctic fields where 8 nations are arctic members and India with China re the observer states, not to mention that India made Arctic draft policy to be tech-ready in future when it comes to harnessing the resources
6. Just like quad India brilliantly achieved a breakthrough when India made a friendly environment between Japan and Russia over Sengkaku island to oust China in its own game.
These are the main highlights of this game, I too liberty to snub the short incidents ongoing around the world and put the idea on hold to talk about small stakeholders such as Mediterranian sea nations.
Dilemma no.1-- Israel or Iran, who is our friend.
Here, the minor facts must be heeded as a. Iran's Chahbahar port is the key to India to Central Asian Region via Afghanistan and Europe, in addition, this port is of utmost importance to counter China situated in Gwadar port, Sino- Pak relationship with failed CRPC project can be countered by taking the help of Shia nation Iran
But, don't you rush, Israel MOSAD has an age-old enmity towards Iran and Iran's claim to become a nuclear-capable nation which haunts the dream of Israel to remain the superpower in the Middle east. Israel not only conquered and defeated the Muslim nations and saved its existence, but the reign also dominated the area, recently put the claim on Golan heights against Palestine as well.
India invested in Palestine heavily and made a soft place in the hearts of OIC nations by helping out the gulf by importing huge surplus of oil and gas reserves and in this series, India included Iran as its huge oil exporter in the list of diversified oil-exporting regions such as Russia and South America and USA as well.
So in my view, the relationship between India and Iran more of a quid pro quo unlike Israel, where Israel is the nation who always supported India even in war-like situations, the one possible reason might be India's stand against the extremism emanated from Islamic separatists and Islamic state-sponsored terrorism, so there is a small emotional and beyond quid pro quo connection between the countries, both are determined to struggle and safeguard their existence through mutual cooperation, though the ways are a little bit differs in nature.
India's diplomacy is focused on fighting the evil and not the whole nation, that theory respects the sovereignty and the goodwill vested in the people of that nation, India is unwilling to become a threat to any nation and trying to help the people all around the world, one such example has been seen in recent times is the "Vaccine Maitri".
On the other hand, Israel is a bit aggressive due to the geostrategic factors could with the fact that Israel has not as much as area and human resource that India has in current times.
In laconic words, Israel is a friend to India united by a common cause.
So now it's up to Indian diplomacy that how they manage between "quid pro quo" and "a common cause"
One possible stance could be the transforming act to change the present status with nations into the amiable environment which is needed by all the nations as they'd need India in dire situations part from war. I presume India has already begun to work on such reliable remedy when India exported 55 lakh vaccines to the neighbouring countries under the neighbour first policy and about to send nearly 1 crore dosage of covid vaccine to African Nations, and while doing so India never poked it's nose in anyone's business around the globe and maintained the NAM principle as much as possible.
Dilemma no. 2: It is again the same cold war era during Cuban times
Biden himself talked to Russia, let me guess the matter should be around NATO, Arctic circle and Syria at most, oh wait, how can I forget the matter of Russian cyber intrusion during the American elections when Trump is said to be the winner with the help of Russian meddling with the USA system, Biden said to have an "I won't forget forgive" kind of grievance with that incident.
As per assumptions, media briefed that the talked didn't end well, Turkey must have crying over the thanksgiving his F35 and S400 both cards are nearly buried into the ground after CAATSA and losing Russia as an ally over Syrian crisis and going against the prior calculations that Russia counted on, Russia thought turkey to be a friend, oh sly Erdogan, not so sly after all.
The Russian economy is facing the wrath of Chinese copycat arm selling on cheaper prices and a bitter fight with OPEC countries including Saudi, at that their internal protests over the arrest of opposition's leader Alexei Navalny (stood up against Putin) in covid times, so Russia is bearing the brunt on multiple fronts and going through distress. Recently Putin's harsh words during EU summit over getting done with personal agendas and growing disputes and differences indicated the stressful clouds all over Moscow.
Here India might not go for F15EX and F18 Super Hornet in MMRCA 2.0, the reason is transparent as Arctic's water! India stood firm on its friendly vows on the matter of buying S400, India didn't face CAATSA because India doesn't have any major player in air squadron primarily. Predator drones are on lease or Sosus system is shared and mutually beneficial it has nothing to do with S400, so the USA has no major key to put pressure on India,
Russia and USA have only one India to counter China, but India has 2 blocks to work with and if the time comes to choose openly between the two, India will only choose the one who will resp[etc the Indian sovereignty in all the matters and walk with India in place of 'Puppeting' the strong nation having the biggest youth power around the globe.
Conclusion
As per major facts given in the starting and in later part the description served are enough to crunch the math that India might look like in a dilemma and India may have to make some tough decisions in the future but is actually because of the desperation of the other nations, here India is not relying directly on anyone, India is just expanding its role as a reliable friend and other parts of the world are desperately eying on the tone of the fastest growing nation economically, socially, scientifically and militarily (due to hostile neighbours), and thus it is not India in peril, it is the world in deep waters crying with a high hand and expecting the "going to be"'Aatmnirbhar Vishwaguru' to support their cause and wilting economy post covid era.
Sources: Google News, Defence updates, India Today, The Telegraph, others.
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