Myanmar coup: Raising concerns or raising bars

 “Only he who has no use for the empire is fit to be entrusted with it.”

― Zhuangzi, The Complete Works of Chuang Tzu

Now, the question arises who will be the most benefitted through the recent coup in Myanmar conducted by the present army in power, would it be China or India, will it be someone else eyeing on S.E. Asia which is a brand new sun in the world of economy and power?

Well, as always let's get onto some facts first-:

1. Myanmar, mostly be ruled by the army in history, the heroic figure and the father of democratic revolutions Aung San Su Kyi was Aung San, the founder of the Myanmar Armed Forces, and is considered the Father of the Nation of modern-day Myanmar. He was instrumental in Burma's independence from British rule but was assassinated just six months before his goal was realized (source: Wikipedia)

2. It is to be enlightening to know that this was Aung San's government during which India undoubtedly effaced the insurgency and crossed border terrorism (a threat to India's internal security in the North-Eastern states), evidently Myanmar aggressively helped India in safeguarding borders.

3. It's the reign of the National League for democracy during which China made fortunes and invested millions in the name of BRI projects into Myanmar

4. Myanmar Army never liked the Chinese presence on its soil as Myanmar army claimed that China provided insurgency groups with arms and ammunitions and these terrorists launched assaults time and again against Myanmar border army and in return, behind the curtains China played a double game by making Myanmar defence market a profit field for itself, China sold a big chunk of rifles, SMG and ammunitions to both terrorists and Myanmar Army over a time period unless Myanmar Army cracked down the case and raised a strong voice against the Chinese presence in any form on Myanmar's soil. 

5. Days ago to the coup, Shri Narvane visited Myanmar and heavily invested in Myanmar's economy as well as defence sector and Myanmar too showed keen interest in procuring the state of art level defence equipment and big bad boys like INS Sinndhuvir (A Russian made kilo class submarine) on lease. Here an interesting fact is that Min Aung Hlaing (The military chief who engineered the coup) has been pretty much distant from Chinese communists and remained the critique brain behind ending the BRI projects and the other Chinese investment. Myanmar shares 2100 km long boundary with China and after procuring Russian air defence system Pantsir S-1 is a nightmare to Chinese foreign diplomats and military experts as Myanmar has no acrid history towards any nation in its neighbourhood except with China.

How would it affect India geo-strategically and economically?

There are numerous projects between Myanmar and India such as Mekong Ganga, Kolkata to Sittwe port trade bypassing Bangladesh and it's cox Bazar, improving the human habitat in first-line border areas through military cooperation to stop an insurgency and destroying terror outfits in-- Arunachal, Nagaland, Manipur, Tripura (the second line starts mainly from Tinsukia, Assam). Other than this Myanmar has a big role to play in the Indian Ocean as its presence with COCO islands is near to Andaman Base is a major strategic point, Myanmar also opens the gate to S.E. Asia via Thailand, these areas are too important under Act East and S.E. Policy to counter the Chinese expansionism and beating it in its own strategies by improving the ties with far allies too, not to mention that Myanmar shares border with Vietnam too, the nation which pillaring the new records in exports in S.E. Asia and gives a China a hard time in military front as well as history dictates. 

(Pic: India Myanmar Thailand Trilateral Highway, source: Wikipedia)

Conclusion: IT is too soon to conclude that Myanmar is under the effect of Sino diplomacy and going away from India. We may see India abstaining from any sharp jibe on this coup for a while at UN even if India can't support an army establishment as a democratic front India will show a sense of patience and solidarity unlike desperate states of America and over-worried Japan, while China may show exacerbating backing to the coup to lure the military establishment in Myanmar.